This is the course project for CS-E5710 Bayesian Data Analysis, which I completed together with my friend Haoping Xiao.
Road traffic and safety have become one of the major problems in people’s safety concerns. According to 1, the annual road traffic deaths has reached 1.35 million in 2018, which makes road accident the leading killer of people aged from 5 to 29. In the UK, traffic accidents have caused more than 1700 deaths and more than 150,000 injuries in 2019 alone 2. Therefore, understanding and projecting the trend of growth (decrease) in the rate of traffic accidents, could raise the awareness of the general population and call for a collaborative effort to address this problem.
In this project, we try to explore the Road Safety Data from the Department of Transport in the UK.
The dataset accurately presents the time, location, police force, vehicles and number of citizens involved in every accident, and it is publicly available at 3.
We will try to capture the trend of the number of cases in different areas using a normal model with linear mean, and provide statistical results from a Bayesian perspective.
Concretely, we study the number of accidents in 6 areas: Metropolitan Area (London), Cumbria, Lancashire, Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Cheshire.
